Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 14.631583 17.817277 21.350372 25.534464 30.328446 35.623868 41.888853
2025-11-09 9.991237 14.080036 19.113374 25.654426 33.812199 43.530896 55.854831
2025-11-16 7.318034 11.643374 17.434491 25.515402 36.239358 49.713339 67.623918
2025-11-23 5.397679 9.627361 15.743093 24.827420 37.534408 54.213584 77.237992
2025-11-30 4.425091 8.708397 15.314539 25.636835 40.685295 61.111590 90.120400
2025-12-07 3.434363 7.505055 14.218702 25.256954 42.014818 65.505133 99.770411
2025-12-14 2.793399 6.730482 13.632002 25.500112 44.157190 71.029537 111.110059
2025-12-21 2.073028 5.611228 12.268348 24.309163 43.976780 73.146286 117.694214
2025-12-28 1.751554 5.201923 12.060539 24.947448 46.600433 79.404111 130.358292
2026-01-04 1.450133 4.749727 11.690755 25.241216 48.652433 84.860162 142.026377
2026-01-11 1.219580 4.394547 11.442950 25.700348 50.966521 90.776195 154.548908
2026-01-18 1.049722 4.140708 11.353542 26.420025 53.730774 97.471711 168.435900
2026-01-25 0.812125 3.637048 10.693067 26.075597 54.795586 101.774922 179.238208
2026-02-01 0.647323 3.281275 10.296994 26.204177 56.705398 107.543854 192.575152
2026-02-08 0.502325 2.917204 9.803452 26.063262 58.094054 112.494708 204.781228
2026-02-15 0.366526 2.503030 9.090799 25.363836 58.379449 115.598997 214.144444
2026-02-22 0.310043 2.374906 9.090958 26.186740 61.547041 123.637914 231.614462
2026-03-01 0.230149 2.083004 8.577180 25.800542 62.360654 127.686669 242.753004
2026-03-08 0.181806 1.908051 8.355773 26.047746 64.405440 133.913754 257.608718
2026-03-15 0.118601 1.575064 7.563622 24.836895 63.445894 134.824473 263.701044
2026-03-22 0.097048 1.488403 7.537659 25.485872 66.289614 142.561629 281.367737
2026-03-29 0.075313 1.371878 7.381087 25.784541 68.416684 149.077378 297.145761
2026-04-05 0.059476 1.281731 7.294758 26.251307 70.915888 156.343589 314.375944